AD Q4 2025 Earnings Analysis

Welcome to Beta Finch, your AI-powered earnings breakdown where we dissect the latest quarterly results and translate the corporate speak into plain English. I'm Alex, and joining me as always is Jordan.

Before we jump in, I need to share our mandatory disclaimer: This podcast is AI-generated content for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing we discuss should be considered investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

This is fascinating, Jordan. Array just completed the sale of its wireless operations and closed a massive $1.018 billion spectrum deal with AT&T in January 2026. This allowed them to pay out a special dividend of $10.25 per share and substantially reduce debt. They've essentially transformed from a wireless company into a pure-play tower and fiber business.

Well, the tower segment is showing serious momentum. Q4 site rental revenue grew 64% year over year across all customers - though that includes the big T-Mobile master lease agreement. Even excluding T-Mobile, they saw 8% growth, which is solid. And here's what caught my attention - new colocation applications excluding T-Mobile jumped 47% for the full year.

Oh boy, yes. So DISH Wireless basically stopped paying since early December 2025, claiming the FCC's actions relieved them of their obligations under their master lease agreement. Array is having none of it - they say DISH's claims are "without merit" and they're preparing legal action. Array had about $7 million in revenue from DISH in 2025, and DISH has similar obligations through 2031.

Absolutely. This is where that AT&T spectrum money is going to work. They've raised their long-term fiber service address target from 1.8 million to 2.1 million - that's 300,000 additional addresses across about 50 new communities where they believe they can be first to market.

For 2026, they're targeting 200,000 to 250,000 new marketable fiber addresses, up significantly from 2025. They delivered 140,000 last year, so this represents meaningful acceleration. Ken Dixon, their telecom head, mentioned they had record crew counts in Q4 and they're maintaining those levels through winter - which historically has been a challenge.

Array Digital Infrastructure is guiding for total operating revenue of $200-215 million in 2026, with adjusted EBITDA of $100-115 million. Notable that they excluded DISH from this guidance entirely given the payment dispute. On the telecom side, they're projecting revenues of $1.015-1.055 billion with CapEx ramping up dramatically to $550-600 million to support the fiber expansion.

It's aggressive, but it seems strategic. The management team is betting that being first to fiber in these edge-out markets will generate mid-teens returns. They're also benefiting from A-CAM funding for rural builds. The key question is execution - they missed their 150,000 address target in 2025, delivering 140,000 instead.

The questions about the naked towers were revealing. After T-Mobile makes their final selections by January 2028, Array expects to have 800-1,800 towers with no tenants. Management sees these as valuable options with "significant latent value," but they need to reduce the holding costs while they market them for new leases.

Exactly, but Array wouldn't commit to that metric. Anthony, their new CEO, was diplomatic about it - probably smart given they're still figuring out this new business model. What I found interesting was their focus on insourcing the sales team and the new Verizon agreement, which they say is already showing results.

They've monetized about 70% of their spectrum holdings through various deals totaling over $2.2 billion. The remaining spectrum is primarily C-band, which management believes is highly attractive for 5G with immediate deployment capabilities. The first build-out requirement isn't until 2029, so they have time to find the right buyer.

TDS has a $500 million share repurchase authorization with $524 million remaining. One analyst asked why they wouldn't buy Array Digital shares instead of TDS shares, given the implied discount, but management deflected that question pretty diplomatically.

Several key things: First, execution on that fiber build plan - can they hit 200-250k addresses this year? Second, the T-Mobile tower integration and how quickly they can backfill those naked towers. Third, resolution of the DISH situation - any settlement would be pure upside. And finally, progress on C-band monetization.

Exactly. The financial resources are there thanks to the spectrum monetization, but now it's all about operational execution in two different infrastructure businesses. The tower industry metrics will be key to watch - can they achieve that industry standard of adding 0.1 tenants per tower per year?

Before we wrap up, Jordan, what's your takeaway for investors?

Well said. This is definitely a story to follow as it develops.

That's a wrap for today's Beta Finch breakdown. Thanks for listening, and we'll catch you next time with another AI-powered earnings deep dive.