SPGI Q2 2026 Earnings Analysis
S&P Global delivered strong Q2 with 11% revenue growth and 23% EPS growth, driven by Ratings (+17%) and Indices (+20%), while raising full-year guidance and increasing buybacks to $7B+.
Key Metrics
Wichtigste Erkenntnisse
- Ratings (+17%) and Indices (+20%) drove growth via strong issuance and ETF net inflows.
- AI solutions gaining traction with 500+ Kensho API customers (70% QoQ growth, 5x API volume vs Q1).
- Increased share buyback target to $7B+ for 2026, representing over 5% of current market capitalization.
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Transcript
// Full episode scriptWelcome to Beta Finch, your AI-powered earnings breakdown of the companies moving the markets. I'm Alex, joined as always by Jordan. Today we're digging into S&P Global's second quarter 2026 results.
Big one — first call since the Mobility spin closed.
Exactly, but before we get into it — this podcast is AI-generated content for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing we discuss should be considered investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Good context to keep in mind, especially with a report this dense.
So let's start with the headline numbers. Revenue grew 11% year-over-year, adjusted EPS jumped 23%, and margins expanded 200 basis points to 54.3%. CEO Martina Cheung called this her first call since completing the Mobility spin-off on July 1st, and she framed the quarter around four core divisions now: Ratings, Indices, Energy, and Market Intelligence.
And the star of the show was really the "benchmarks" businesses — Ratings, Indices, and the Platts side of Energy. Those grew 15% collectively and now make up more than 80% of operating profit, even though they're "only" two-thirds of revenue. That's a really profitable core.
Let's talk Ratings first, because it had a record quarter — revenue up 17%. Bond issuance was up 25%, driven by AI infrastructure and data center buildout, plus M&A activity.
That hyperscaler number really stood out to me. They initially guided for about $200 billion in hyperscaler-related issuance this year. In just the first half, they already saw $169 billion. They've now bumped full-year guidance up to $250-300 billion.
That's a massive raise. And CFO Eric Aboaf made a point of saying this outperformance isn't cannibalizing future refinancing — they're still looking at roughly $11 trillion of rated debt coming due for refinancing over the next four and a half years.
Indices was arguably even stronger — 20% revenue growth, 13 straight record quarters. ETF assets tied to S&P Dow Jones hit $6.35 trillion, and one S&P 500-linked ETF became the first ever to cross $1 trillion in AUM.
Now, not everything was rosy. Energy only grew 3%, and management was upfront that the Iran conflict has been messing with contract renewals and trading volumes. They're calling it transitory, expecting growth to normalize back to that 6-8% range next year.
And Market Intelligence — the segment everyone's watching for a turnaround story — grew a more modest 6%. They just restructured it into two lines: Kensho Data, which is the high-growth AI and proprietary data piece, and Platforms, the more mature legacy tools like CapIQ. There was also mention of some "subscale" products in consulting and sustainability dragging on growth, and Cheung didn't rule out shedding those down the road.
The AI angle was everywhere on this call, honestly. Their Kensho LLM-ready API client base is now over 500 and grew 70% quarter-over-quarter, with API call volume up 5x sequentially.
What I found interesting in the Q&A was how they're thinking about monetizing that. Eric Aboaf described it as a mix of consumption-based pricing and additional dataset fees, basically capturing value as clients pull more data through AI tools rather than just charging flat subscription fees.
There was also a question about elongated sales cycles with big clients, and Martina actually framed that as a positive — she said the conversations are getting more complex because clients want to do more with their data and AI, and S&P is being deliberate about protecting its IP in those negotiations.
On the capital return side, this is a big deal for shareholders — they raised the 2026 buyback target by nearly $3 billion, to more than $7 billion for the full year. That's over 5% of their current market cap.
Part of that's funded by a $2 billion dividend they received from Mobility Global upon the spin completing, plus they're planning to issue $2 billion in new debt in the second half. Leverage will tick up modestly to 2.7-2.8x EBITDA before coming back into their target range by the end of 2027.
On guidance, they're now looking for 6-8% organic constant currency revenue growth for the year, adjusted EPS of $17.50 to $17.75 — that's double-digit growth across the whole range — and margin expansion of 75 to 100 basis points, which is actually better than they originally expected.
So Jordan, stepping back — what's the takeaway for investors here?
I think it's a story of a simplified, more focused company leaning hard into its highest-margin businesses. Ratings and Indices are firing on all cylinders, funded by AI infrastructure buildout and a strong M&A pipeline. The real question mark is Market Intelligence — can the new structure and the Kensho AI push actually reaccelerate growth there, or does it stay the laggard of the four divisions?
And Energy is the other one to watch — management insists the softness is cyclical and geopolitical, not structural, but we'll want to see that 6-8% growth actually materialize next year.
Before we wrap up — everything discussed is AI-generated analysis for educational purposes. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Please do your own due diligence.
Well said. All in all, a strong quarter with some real momentum in the core benchmark businesses, and plenty to watch as the new four-division structure beds in over the second half.
We'll be back next quarter to see how that hyperscaler issuance guide holds up, and whether Market Intelligence starts showing some of that AI-driven acceleration.
Thanks for listening to Beta Finch — until next time, take care.