INTC Q4 2025 Earnings Analysis

Welcome to Beta Finch, your AI-powered earnings breakdown where we dive deep into the numbers that matter. I'm Alex.

Before we jump in, I need to mention that this podcast is AI-generated content for educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing we discuss should be considered investment advice. Always do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

The numbers actually look pretty solid on the surface. Q4 revenue came in at $13.7 billion - that's at the high end of their guidance range. They delivered non-GAAP earnings per share of 15 cents versus guidance of just 8 cents. And here's something interesting - this marks their fifth consecutive quarter of beating guidance.

You know me too well, Jordan. The big story here isn't what they delivered - it's what they couldn't deliver due to supply constraints. CEO Lip-Bu Tan was pretty candid about this. He said they're "disappointed that we are not able to fully meet the demand in our markets."

It's all about AI infrastructure build-out. Their traditional server business saw 15% sequential growth - the fastest this decade, according to CFO Dave Zinsner. AI PCs were up 16% in units. But here's the kicker - Zinsner said revenue "would have been meaningfully higher if we had more supply."

This is where it gets interesting. They're guiding to $11.7 to $12.7 billion for Q1, with a midpoint of $12.2 billion. That's actually below typical seasonality. Zinsner said they'd be "well above seasonal if we had all the supply."

Exactly right. They're deliberately shifting their constrained wafer supply toward higher-margin data center customers and away from PC clients. It's a smart move financially, but it shows just how tight their supply situation really is. They've basically depleted their inventory buffers and are operating hand-to-mouth.

This is probably the most forward-looking part of the call. They're shipping products on Intel 18A - which they claim is the most advanced process manufactured on U.S. soil. But the real excitement is around Intel 14A. They expect customers to start making firm supplier decisions in the second half of 2026, with volume production targeted for 2028.

Yes! Zinsner said their advanced packaging opportunities - particularly something called EMIB-T - could be "well north of $1 billion" per customer engagement. He initially thought these would be "hundreds of millions" but customer interest is way stronger than expected. Some customers are even making prepayments to secure capacity.

Great point. Their custom ASIC business grew over 50% in 2025 and hit that billion-dollar run rate in Q4. Lip-Bu sees this as a pathway into a $100 billion TAM opportunity, especially with AI and networking customers wanting purpose-built silicon.

It's a combination of lower revenue from supply constraints and the cost structure of their new Panther Lake chips - that's their Core Ultra Series 3. These are built on 18A, and while the technology is impressive, the yields aren't quite where they need to be yet. Zinsner admitted 34.5% is "by no means an acceptable level" and they're targeting 40% as their next milestone.

They're claiming some pretty aggressive performance improvements - up to 27 hours of battery life, 70% generation-on-generation graphics improvements, and benchmark performance that's 50% to 100% better than peers. It'll be interesting to see how that plays out in real-world reviews.

Lip-Bu brought in someone named Kevork to oversee both traditional servers and AI acceleration. The idea is to ensure their CPU and GPU strategies are tightly coordinated. They're also working with NVIDIA on a custom Xeon that integrates NVLink technology, which could be significant for AI workloads.

It definitely suggests NVIDIA sees value in Intel's manufacturing capabilities and x86 architecture for AI infrastructure. Remember, while everyone focuses on AI training, the real volume opportunity is in AI inference - and that's where CPUs remain critical for orchestration and control.

Three key things: First, can they actually improve supply and yields as promised? Second, do they secure those foundry customers they're courting for 14A? And third, can they execute on their ambitious AI strategy across CPUs, GPUs, and ASICs? The opportunity is clearly there, but execution has been Intel's Achilles heel for years.

Absolutely. Intel's betting big on being a foundry alternative to TSMC and Samsung, especially for customers wanting U.S.-based manufacturing. But they need to prove they can execute at scale while also fixing their own supply issues.

Thanks for tuning in to Beta Finch. Intel's story is far from over, and we'll be watching closely to see if Lip-Bu can deliver on his ambitious turnaround plan. Until next time, keep those earnings calendars handy!